Climate trend analysis of the level changes in Iznik Lake in Turkey

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to carry out the statistical analysis on the changes in watershed climate and the level of Iznik Lake, which is one of the major lakes in Turkey, and determine the trends. Correlation and regression analysis were carried out in order to manifest the association between climate elements and changes in the lake elevation and a positive significant association between them was determined. Quadratic and Linear Trend models were used to determine the trend inclinations. According to the results obtained from the analysis, the watershed area shall have an increased vaporization of approximately 10 cm (100mm) until the year 2025, whereas according to the values foreseen by the United Nations for the earth in a century’s time which are approximated as an increase of 1,4-5,8 °C, the increase has been concluded as 0,5 -5 °C. According to the Quadratic Trend model, the increase would be (140 mm), whereas according to the Linear Trend model there would be a decrease of 20 mm. As a result, it was estimated that according to both trend analysis carried out in order to determine the level changes of Iznik lake, the lake level shall decrease approximately 30 cm until the year 2025.